The Buffalo Bills are on the West Coast this weekend and get a stand-alone prime-time game tonight vs. the clean-house Los Angeles Chargers who will feature new head coach Giff Smith and rely on quarterback Easton Stick as a double-digit dog.
With plenty of movement of both the side and total and coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss that got their coach canned, should bettors expect a different Chargers team than the one in Week 15?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bills vs. Chargers on December 23.
Be sure to also check out our three favorite Bills vs Chargers prop picks and our Josh Allen spotlight!
Bills vs Chargers odds
Bills vs Chargers predictions
Professional bettors pounced on an over-inflated Buffalo Bills line this week after the line moved from a look-ahead number of -10 to as long as -14 after the events of Week 15. That line has moved back down to 10.5 as of Tuesday but it’s the total that has me looking at my best bet.
The Over has seen some early money but the move from 41 to 43.5 might be a little much in this spot for multiple reasons.
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off an embarrassing loss 63-21 loss in prime time which subsequently got their head coach and general manager canned. There should be some pushback from this defense at home with the extra rest and getting a defensive-minded interim head coach in Giff Smith might spark a better defensive performance.
It’s a defense that has to slow down a Buffalo offense that is committed to running since both of its tight ends are healthy. Since the return of Dawson Knox, the Bills have gone from 3-WR sets at 75% to as low as 35% last week. They are running the ball and are one of the slowest pace-of-play teams in football which might surprise some.
On the season and in a neutral context, the Bills rank 26th in pace of play and that number gets ever longer in overall pace of play at 29.55 seconds per play which ranks 30th. New OC Joe Brady is getting three running backs involved and Buffalo could continue to eat the clock and run the ball which would help this Under.
It’s also not a great spot for this L.A. offense that will be led by Easton Stick this week. The backup had decent numbers last week vs. the Raiders with 257 yards on 23 of 32 passing, but there was a lot of garbage time mixed in there.
This Buffalo defense just held one of the best offenses to to Under 200 yards last week and 3.4 yards per play. It also faces Austin Ekeler who has not been himself (injury?) this year and an offense that may be without Keenan Allen who is dealing with a heel injury.
It should be noted, that Allen did break the franchise record with his 108th catch of the season back in Week 14 and will enter the last year of his contract in 2024. There isn’t a need to rush back on Saturday.
I don’t love betting Unders in indoor games, but thanks to the heavy Over movement since opening, I’m comfortable with this number. There could be some movement to 44, but if Allen is out, it’s tough to see this close higher than 43.5.
My best bet: Under 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bills vs Chargers same-game parlay
Under 43.5Josh Allen Under 31.5 rushing yardsAustin Ekeler Under 30.5 receiving yards
+448 at FanDuel
Allen doesn’t have to put himself in harm’s way with the emergence of the new Buffalo rushing game. This is a low-volume pass game for him as a big favorite which will decrease pass plays and in turn, scramble opportunities which are the biggest factor for QB rush yards.
Austin Ekeler is losing snaps to Josh Kelley and Isaiah Spiller who are also working in the passing game. He doesn’t look 100% healthy and most books have moved this line to 27.5. THE BLITZ is projecting 24 yards for Ekeler.
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